{"id":4571,"date":"2015-12-23T09:00:33","date_gmt":"2015-12-23T17:00:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.msdn.microsoft.com\/msr_er\/?p=4571"},"modified":"2016-08-17T16:38:57","modified_gmt":"2016-08-17T23:38:57","slug":"exclusive-experts-and-audience-agree-ai-is-an-opportunity-not-a-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/blog\/exclusive-experts-and-audience-agree-ai-is-an-opportunity-not-a-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Exclusive: Experts and audience agree AI is an opportunity, not a threat"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Christine\u00a0Clifton-Thornton, Research News<\/em><\/p>\n

Swedish Nobel organizers whose annual prizes recognize the pinnacle of human achievement turned their attention this month to human and artificial intelligence. The Nobel Week Dialogue (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a> convened leading academics, technology leaders, Nobel laureates and other luminaries in Gothenburg, Sweden to consider \u201cThe Future of Intelligence.\u201d Capping a year of rising concern in some quarters of the dangers of AI, the event provided lively and thoughtful discussions on what remains a controversial topic.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe design the systems we put in the world, and there are ethical issues that need to be understood and addressed,\u201d said Harvard AI professor Barbara Grosz in a panel addressing the future development of AI. \u201cWe have a choice as we think about those issues, and many issues can be addressed by designing systems better.\u201d And students should consider potential negative impacts of AI early. Grosz teaches a class on intelligent systems design and ethical challenges that engages students through the tool of popular media, examining movies such as Ex Machina<\/em> under the light of ethics.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs we design these kinds of systems, we have to be very careful to take into account their impact on human beings,\u201d agreed Harry Shum, Executive Vice President of Microsoft\u2019s Technology and Research group. \u201cWe have more and more data and breakthroughs in algorithms that have allowed us to make great progress in speech, language and understanding, and I personally believe Microsoft must invest more in these areas.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cUntil now, the tasks and goals we want AI systems such as Watson to solve have been very specific,\u201d said Shum. \u201cBut we continue to struggle with our inability to model uncertainty. We really don\u2019t know which is more difficult: Landing a drone on an aircraft carrier or designing a little robot to make eggs for your breakfast in your kitchen. I think it\u2019s the latter, because we don\u2019t know how to model the differences among houses. But we\u2019ll understand more and more, largely from the data we collect.\u201d<\/p>\n

Perhaps nothing better illustrates the rapid change in technology and intelligence than the increasing amount of data generated each day. About 90 percent of the world\u2019s data has been created in the last two years alone, with 2.5 exabytes of new data being created every day, according to Guru Banavar, Vice President of Cognitive Computing at IBM and leader of the research team creating the next generation of Watson.<\/p>\n

And what should we do with this data? How about developing a learning, reasoning machine that would partner with people? Banavar suggests such a machine would be a powerful tool to augment human intelligence\u2014not replace it.<\/p>\n

Anyone concerned about the imminent rise of the machines need only view some recent contests of machines in action. \u201cAt the DARPA competition this year, the robots spent most of their time just trying to get up,\u201d said UC Berkeley professor Stuart Russell.<\/p>\n

Future predictions<\/strong><\/p>\n

When asked to predict the ten-year future of AI, panelists envisioned a broad range of useful systems. \u201cWe should provide advice and expertise to enhance people\u2019s ability to participate in government and bring what people at large think to the government,\u201d said Grosz.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of the things machines can do really well is collect and synthesize large amounts of information,\u201d said Russell. \u201cWithout machines, we don\u2019t have the ability to put together information\u2014artifacts, texts, all kinds of historical sources\u2014showing how our cultures have grown and interweaved. We should use the information to build a consistent consensus picture about the functioning of life, and do the same thing with history.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere should be an all-knowing agent for you: an alter ego, your second self,\u201d predicted Shum. \u201cBut it does require the user to cooperate with the AI system: we can only build that if you are willing to share. I am a big believer in having the data. I think the alter ego will be the most exciting AI system in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n

But we don’t have to wait for the future to see the positive\u00a0impacts of AI. \u201cWith recent breakthroughs in algorithms and science, AI is already making a difference in people\u2019s lives,\u201d said Grosz.\u00a0Current uses of AI are legion. \u201cIt\u2019s being used to protect wildlife (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a> in the forest by understanding the randomness of where the poachers are going to be.\u201d And\u00a0opportunities in the healthcare field abound. \u201cIn the US alone, every year 400,000 people die from medical errors,\u201d said Shum. Medical applications, some already in development (opens in new tab)<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0can prevent such errors.<\/p>\n

Nobel a trending topic<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Nobel mission of bridging science and society proved to be a hit with its core audience. The digital dialogue was initiated before the event began, when thousands of\u00a0Nobel social media followers responded to a question on the Future of Intelligence\u00a0that\u00a0helped inform the discussion in Gothenburg. \u201cIt\u2019s the first time the Nobel Week Dialogue has made it to number one,\u201d\u00a0said Magnus Gylje, Editor-in-Chief of Nobelprize.org, noting that\u00a0#NobelDialogue was the most-discussed topic in Sweden throughout the day on Twitter and trended internationally.<\/p>\n

During the Dialogue, the audience responded to live polling questions\u00a0such as, \u201cIs the development of AI primarily a threat or an opportunity to our society?\u201d The verdict: More than 86 percent believe AI is an opportunity.<\/p>\n

With so many smart people in one room, it\u2019s no surprise that some of their comments trended on social media. Popular quotes:<\/p>\n