{"id":166016,"date":"2013-10-01T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2013-10-01T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/msr-research-item\/predictive-modelling-of-contagious-deforestation-in-the-brazilian-amazon\/"},"modified":"2018-10-16T20:17:04","modified_gmt":"2018-10-17T03:17:04","slug":"predictive-modelling-of-contagious-deforestation-in-the-brazilian-amazon","status":"publish","type":"msr-research-item","link":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/publication\/predictive-modelling-of-contagious-deforestation-in-the-brazilian-amazon\/","title":{"rendered":"Predictive Modelling of Contagious Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"asset-content\">\n<p>Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges \u201cbottom up\u201d, as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated\u2013pre- and post-PPCDAM (\u201cPlano de A\u00e7\u00e3o para Prote\u00e7\u00e3o e Controle do Desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia\u201d)\u2013the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently experiencing low deforestation rates due to its isolation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- .asset-content --><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr-author-ordering":[{"type":"user_nicename","value":"dpurves"}],"msr_publishername":"PLoS","msr_publisher_other":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_edition":"PLOS One","msr_editors":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_issue":"","msr_journal":"PLOS One","msr_number":"","msr_organization":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_page_range_start":"","msr_page_range_end":"","msr_series":"","msr_volume":"","msr_copyright":"","msr_conference_name":"","msr_doi":"","msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_s2_paper_id":"","msr_mag_id":"","msr_pubmed_id":"","msr_other_authors":"","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_award":"","msr_affiliation":"","msr_institution":"","msr_host":"","msr_version":"","msr_duration":"","msr_original_fields_of_study":"","msr_release_tracker_id":"","msr_s2_match_type":"","msr_citation_count_updated":"","msr_published_date":"2013-01-01","msr_highlight_text":"","msr_notes":"","msr_longbiography":"","msr_publicationurl":"http:\/\/www.plosone.org\/article\/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0077231","msr_external_url":"","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_conference_url":"","msr_journal_url":"","msr_s2_pdf_url":"","msr_year":2013,"msr_citation_count":0,"msr_influential_citations":0,"msr_reference_count":0,"msr_s2_match_confidence":0,"msr_microsoftintellectualproperty":true,"msr_s2_open_access":false,"msr_s2_author_ids":[],"msr_pub_ids":[],"msr_hide_image_in_river":0,"footnotes":""},"msr-research-highlight":[],"research-area":[13546],"msr-publication-type":[193715],"msr-publisher":[],"msr-focus-area":[],"msr-locale":[268875],"msr-post-option":[],"msr-field-of-study":[],"msr-conference":[],"msr-journal":[],"msr-impact-theme":[],"msr-pillar":[],"class_list":["post-166016","msr-research-item","type-msr-research-item","status-publish","hentry","msr-research-area-computational-sciences-mathematics","msr-locale-en_us"],"msr_publishername":"PLoS","msr_edition":"PLOS One","msr_affiliation":"","msr_published_date":"2013-01-01","msr_host":"","msr_duration":"","msr_version":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_journal":"PLOS One","msr_volume":"","msr_number":"","msr_editors":"","msr_series":"","msr_issue":"","msr_organization":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_notes":"","msr_highlight_text":"","msr_release_tracker_id":"","msr_original_fields_of_study":"","msr_download_urls":"","msr_external_url":"","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_longbiography":"","msr_microsoftintellectualproperty":1,"msr_main_download":"","msr_publicationurl":"http:\/\/www.plosone.org\/article\/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0077231","msr_doi":"","msr_publication_uploader":[{"type":"url","title":"http:\/\/www.plosone.org\/article\/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0077231","viewUrl":false,"id":false,"label_id":0}],"msr_related_uploader":"","msr_citation_count":0,"msr_citation_count_updated":"","msr_s2_paper_id":"","msr_influential_citations":0,"msr_reference_count":0,"msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_s2_author_ids":[],"msr_s2_open_access":false,"msr_s2_pdf_url":null,"msr_attachments":[{"id":0,"url":"http:\/\/www.plosone.org\/article\/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0077231"}],"msr-author-ordering":[{"type":"user_nicename","value":"dpurves","user_id":31681,"rest_url":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/microsoft-research\/v1\/researchers?person=dpurves"}],"msr_impact_theme":[],"msr_research_lab":[],"msr_event":[],"msr_group":[],"msr_project":[170839],"publication":[],"video":[],"msr-tool":[],"msr_publication_type":"article","related_content":{"projects":[{"ID":170839,"post_title":"FetchClimate","post_name":"fetchclimate","post_type":"msr-project","post_date":"2011-10-27 03:48:03","post_modified":"2017-07-04 13:18:00","post_status":"publish","permalink":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/project\/fetchclimate\/","post_excerpt":"FetchClimate is a fast, free, intelligent environmental information retrieval service that operates over the cloud to return only the environmental data you need. FetchClimate can be accessed either through a simple web interface or via a few lines of code inside any program. Get environmental information in four easy steps FetchClimate provides ready access to complex geographical information including, but not limited to, climatological information. 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