This Chapter presents the PASCAL1 Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Challenge, introduces the contributed Chapters by the participants who obtained outstanding results, and provides a discussion with some lessons to be learnt. The Challenge was set up to evaluate the ability of Machine Learning algorithms to provide good \u201cprobabilistic predictions\u201d, rather than just the usual \u201cpoint predictions\u201d with no measure of uncertainty, in regression and classi\ufb01cation problems. Participants had to compete on a number of regression and classi\ufb01cation tasks, and were evaluated by both traditional losses that only take into account point predictions and losses we proposed that evaluate the quality of the probabilistic predictions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
This Chapter presents the PASCAL1 Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Challenge, introduces the contributed Chapters by the participants who obtained outstanding results, and provides a discussion with some lessons to be learnt. The Challenge was set up to evaluate the ability of Machine Learning algorithms to provide good \u201cprobabilistic predictions\u201d, rather than just the usual \u201cpoint predictions\u201d […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr-author-ordering":[{"type":"text","value":"J. Qui\u00f1onero Candela"},{"type":"text","value":"C. E. Rasmussen"},{"type":"text","value":"F. Sinz"},{"type":"text","value":"O. Bousquet"},{"type":"text","value":"B. Sch\u00f6lkopf"},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"joaquinc"}],"msr_publishername":"Springer","msr_publisher_other":"","msr_booktitle":"Machine Learning Challenges - Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty, Textual Entailment and Object Recognition Systems","msr_chapter":"","msr_edition":"","msr_editors":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_issue":"","msr_journal":"","msr_number":"","msr_organization":"","msr_pages_string":"1\u201327","msr_page_range_start":"1","msr_page_range_end":"27","msr_series":"Lecture Notes in Computer Science","msr_volume":"3944","msr_copyright":"","msr_conference_name":"Machine Learning Challenges - Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty, Textual Entailment and Object Recognition Systems","msr_doi":"","msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_mag_id":"","msr_other_authors":"J. Qui\u00f1onero Candela, C. E. Rasmussen, F. Sinz, O. Bousquet, B. Sch\u00f6lkopf","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_award":"","msr_affiliation":"","msr_institution":"","msr_host":"","msr_version":"","msr_duration":"","msr_release_tracker_id":"","msr_highlight_type":"","msr_date_display_format":"","msr_main_download_label":"","msr_external_link_label":"","msr_doi_label":"","msr_published_date":"2006-01-01","msr_startdate":"","msr_presentation_date":"","msr_highlight_text":"","msr_notes":"","msr_longbiography":"","msr_publicationurl":"","msr_external_url":"","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_conference_url":"","msr_journal_url":"","msr_year":2006,"msr_month":1,"msr_day":1,"msr_microsoftintellectualproperty":true,"msr_pub_id":"","msr_publication_uploader":[{"type":"file","title":"quinonero06epuc.pdf","label_id":243132,"id":209232,"viewUrl":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/quinonero06epuc.pdf"}],"msr_related_uploader":[],"msr_original_fields_of_study":[],"msr_s2_paper_id":"","msr_s2_pdf_url":"","msr_citation_count_updated":"","msr_citation_count":0,"msr_influential_citations":0,"msr_reference_count":0,"msr_s2_open_access":false,"msr_s2_author_ids":[],"msr_pub_ids":[],"msr_hide_image_in_river":0,"footnotes":""},"msr-research-highlight":[],"research-area":[13560],"msr-publication-type":[193721],"msr-publisher":[],"msr-publication-cta":[],"msr-focus-area":[],"msr-locale":[268875],"msr-post-option":[],"msr-field-of-study":[],"msr-conference":[],"msr-journal":[],"msr-impact-theme":[],"msr-pillar":[],"class_list":["post-154946","msr-research-item","type-msr-research-item","status-publish","hentry","msr-research-area-programming-languages-software-engineering","msr-locale-en_us"],"msr_publishername":"Springer","msr_edition":"","msr_affiliation":"","msr_published_date":"2006-01-01","msr_host":"","msr_duration":"","msr_version":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_booktitle":"Machine Learning Challenges - Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty, Textual Entailment and Object Recognition Systems","msr_pages_string":"1\u201327","msr_chapter":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_journal":"","msr_volume":"3944","msr_number":"","msr_editors":"","msr_series":"Lecture Notes in Computer Science","msr_issue":"","msr_organization":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_notes":"","msr_highlight_text":"","msr_release_tracker_id":"","msr_original_fields_of_study":"","msr_download_urls":"","msr_external_url":"","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_longbiography":"","msr_microsoftintellectualproperty":1,"msr_main_download":"","msr_publicationurl":"","msr_doi":"","msr_publication_uploader":[{"type":"file","title":"quinonero06epuc.pdf","label_id":243132,"id":209232,"viewUrl":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/quinonero06epuc.pdf"}],"msr_related_uploader":[],"msr_citation_count":0,"msr_citation_count_updated":"","msr_s2_paper_id":"","msr_influential_citations":0,"msr_reference_count":0,"msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_s2_author_ids":[],"msr_s2_open_access":false,"msr_s2_pdf_url":null,"msr_attachments":[{"id":209232,"url":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/02\/quinonero06epuc.pdf"}],"msr-author-ordering":[{"type":"text","value":"J. Qui\u00f1onero Candela","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"C. E. Rasmussen","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"F. Sinz","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"O. Bousquet","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"B. Sch\u00f6lkopf","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"joaquinc","user_id":32347,"rest_url":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/microsoft-research\/v1\/researchers?person=joaquinc"}],"msr_impact_theme":[],"msr_research_lab":[],"msr_event":[],"msr_group":[],"msr_project":[],"publication":[],"video":[],"msr-tool":[],"msr_publication_type":"inbook","related_content":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-item\/154946","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-item"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/msr-research-item"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-item\/154946\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":412889,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-item\/154946\/revisions\/412889"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=154946"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"msr-research-highlight","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-highlight?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-research-area","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research-area?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-publication-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-publication-type?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-publisher","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-publisher?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-publication-cta","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-publication-cta?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-focus-area","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-focus-area?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-locale","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-locale?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-post-option","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-post-option?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-field-of-study","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-field-of-study?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-conference","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-conference?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-journal","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-journal?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-impact-theme","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-impact-theme?post=154946"},{"taxonomy":"msr-pillar","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-pillar?post=154946"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}