<\/p>\n\n\n\n
ABSTRACT The 2023\/24 El Ni\u00f1o strongly reduced land carbon uptake, but the persistence of this anomaly after surface cooling remains uncertain. Here we quantify the July 2024\u2013June 2025 global CO2 budget using low\u2010latency fossil emission estimates, three DGVMs, machine learning ocean flux emulators and OCO\u20102\u2010constrained atmospheric inversions. The atmospheric CO2 growth rate was 2.62 \u00b1 0.08 ppm yr\u22121, 6.5% above the 2013\u20132022 July\u2010to\u2010June mean. DGVMs estimate that the net land sink was 1.32 \u00b1 0.19 GtC yr\u22121 weaker than the 2015\u20132022 July\u2010to\u2010June mean, whereas combining bottom\u2010up and top\u2010down constraints gives a smaller deficit of 0.49 GtC yr\u22121. The annual anomaly is dominated by late\u20102024 land carbon losses. Early\u20102025 recovery, however, is method\u2010dependent: DGVMs retain a weak annual land\u2010sink deficit, while all inversions indicate fluxes close to the reference mean and a stronger\u2010than\u2010normal northern sink in late spring 2025. Ocean uptake shows no global weakening. A statistical decomposition links global land flux variability mainly to temperature, with terrestrial water storage contributing more strongly at regional scales. These results identify Northern Hemisphere land\u2010sink recovery as a central uncertainty in low\u2010latency carbon\u2010budget assessments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABSTRACT The 2023\/24 El Ni\u00f1o strongly reduced land carbon uptake, but the persistence of this anomaly after surface cooling remains uncertain. Here we quantify the July 2024\u2013June 2025 global CO2 budget using low\u2010latency fossil emission estimates, three DGVMs, machine learning ocean flux emulators and OCO\u20102\u2010constrained atmospheric inversions. The atmospheric CO2 growth rate was 2.62 \u00b1 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"msr-url-field":"","msr-podcast-episode":"","msrModifiedDate":"","msrModifiedDateEnabled":false,"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"_classifai_error":"","msr-author-ordering":[{"type":"text","value":"Piyu Ke","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"P. Ciais","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Yi-Tong Yao","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"S. Sitch","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Wei Li","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Xiao-Meng Du","user_id":0},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"Xiaofan Gui","user_id":"42456"},{"type":"text","value":"B. Poulter","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"T. Colligan","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"A. M. van der Woude","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"J. Hooghiem","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"W. Peters","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Zhu Liu","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Zhu Deng","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Zhe Jin","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Xiang-Jun Tian","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Yi-Long Wang","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Junjie Liu","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Sudhanshu Pandey","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"C. O'Dell","user_id":0},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"Jiang Bian","user_id":"38481"},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"John Miller","user_id":"32370"},{"type":"text","value":"Xin Lan","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Jefferson Gonçalves de Souza","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"M. O'Sullivan","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Pierre Friedlingstein","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Julien Alléon","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Yi Xi","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Daniel S. Goll","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"Lei Zhu","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"G. R. van der Werf","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"S. Piao","user_id":0},{"type":"text","value":"F. Chevallier","user_id":0}],"msr_publishername":"","msr_publisher_other":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_edition":"Advancement of science","msr_editors":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_issue":"","msr_journal":"Advanced Science","msr_number":"","msr_organization":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_page_range_start":"","msr_page_range_end":"","msr_series":"","msr_volume":"","msr_copyright":"","msr_conference_name":"","msr_doi":"10.1002\/advs.77369","msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_mag_id":"","msr_other_authors":"","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_award":"","msr_affiliation":"","msr_institution":"","msr_host":"","msr_version":"","msr_duration":"","msr_release_tracker_id":"","msr_highlight_type":"","msr_date_display_format":"","msr_main_download_label":"","msr_external_link_label":"","msr_doi_label":"","msr_published_date":"2026-09-01","msr_startdate":"","msr_presentation_date":"","msr_highlight_text":"","msr_notes":"","msr_longbiography":"","msr_publicationurl":"","msr_external_url":"","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_conference_url":"","msr_journal_url":"","msr_year":2026,"msr_month":9,"msr_day":1,"msr_microsoftintellectualproperty":false,"msr_pub_id":"e866590e29cbbe6198544c8124bca68410f401ef","msr_publication_uploader":[{"type":"url","title":"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/13534783","label_id":243109,"id":false,"viewUrl":false},{"type":"url","title":"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/42681796","label_id":243109,"id":false,"viewUrl":false},{"type":"url","title":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdfdirect\/10.1002\/advs.77369","label_id":243109,"id":false,"viewUrl":false}],"msr_related_uploader":[],"msr_original_fields_of_study":[],"msr_s2_paper_id":"e866590e29cbbe6198544c8124bca68410f401ef","msr_s2_pdf_url":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdfdirect\/10.1002\/advs.77369","msr_citation_count_updated":"","msr_citation_count":0,"msr_influential_citations":0,"msr_reference_count":45,"msr_s2_open_access":true,"msr_s2_author_ids":[],"msr_pub_ids":[{"provider":"s2","id":"e866590e29cbbe6198544c8124bca68410f401ef"},{"provider":"doi","id":"10.1002\/advs.77369"},{"provider":"pubmed","id":"42681796"},{"provider":"pubmedcentral","id":"13534783"},{"provider":"corpusid","id":"291615043"}],"msr_hide_image_in_river":0,"footnotes":""},"msr-research-highlight":[],"research-area":[13563,198583],"msr-publication-type":[193715],"msr-publisher":[],"msr-publication-cta":[],"msr-focus-area":[],"msr-locale":[268875],"msr-post-option":[],"msr-field-of-study":[265482,260551,246985],"msr-conference":[],"msr-journal":[270595],"msr-impact-theme":[],"msr-pillar":[],"class_list":["post-1187161","msr-research-item","type-msr-research-item","status-publish","hentry","msr-research-area-data-platform-analytics","msr-research-area-ecology-environment","msr-locale-en_us","msr-field-of-study-earth-system-science","msr-field-of-study-environmental-science","msr-field-of-study-medicine"],"msr_publishername":"","msr_edition":"Advancement of science","msr_affiliation":"","msr_published_date":"2026-09-01","msr_host":"","msr_duration":"","msr_version":"","msr_speaker":"","msr_other_contributors":"","msr_booktitle":"","msr_pages_string":"","msr_chapter":"","msr_isbn":"","msr_journal":"Advanced Science","msr_volume":"","msr_number":"","msr_editors":"","msr_series":"","msr_issue":"","msr_organization":"","msr_how_published":"","msr_notes":"","msr_highlight_text":"","msr_release_tracker_id":"","msr_original_fields_of_study":"","msr_download_urls":"","msr_external_url":"","msr_secondary_video_url":"","msr_longbiography":"","msr_microsoftintellectualproperty":0,"msr_main_download":"","msr_publicationurl":"","msr_doi":"10.1002\/advs.77369","msr_publication_uploader":[{"type":"url","title":"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/13534783","label_id":243109,"id":false,"viewUrl":false},{"type":"url","title":"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/42681796","label_id":243109,"id":false,"viewUrl":false},{"type":"url","title":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdfdirect\/10.1002\/advs.77369","label_id":243109,"id":false,"viewUrl":false}],"msr_related_uploader":[],"msr_citation_count":0,"msr_citation_count_updated":"","msr_s2_paper_id":"e866590e29cbbe6198544c8124bca68410f401ef","msr_influential_citations":0,"msr_reference_count":45,"msr_arxiv_id":"","msr_s2_author_ids":[],"msr_s2_open_access":true,"msr_s2_pdf_url":"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/pdfdirect\/10.1002\/advs.77369","msr_attachments":[],"msr-author-ordering":[{"type":"text","value":"Piyu Ke","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"P. Ciais","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Yi-Tong Yao","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"S. Sitch","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Wei Li","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Xiao-Meng Du","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"Xiaofan Gui","user_id":42456,"rest_url":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/microsoft-research\/v1\/researchers?person=Xiaofan Gui"},{"type":"text","value":"B. Poulter","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"T. Colligan","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"A. M. van der Woude","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"J. Hooghiem","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"W. Peters","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Zhu Liu","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Zhu Deng","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Zhe Jin","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Xiang-Jun Tian","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Yi-Long Wang","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Junjie Liu","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Sudhanshu Pandey","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"C. O'Dell","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"Jiang Bian","user_id":38481,"rest_url":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/microsoft-research\/v1\/researchers?person=Jiang Bian"},{"type":"user_nicename","value":"John Miller","user_id":32370,"rest_url":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/microsoft-research\/v1\/researchers?person=John Miller"},{"type":"text","value":"Xin Lan","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Jefferson Gonçalves de Souza","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"M. O'Sullivan","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Pierre Friedlingstein","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Julien Alléon","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Yi Xi","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Daniel S. Goll","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"Lei Zhu","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"G. R. van der Werf","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"S. Piao","user_id":0,"rest_url":false},{"type":"text","value":"F. Chevallier","user_id":0,"rest_url":false}],"msr_impact_theme":[],"msr_research_lab":[],"msr_event":[],"msr_group":[],"msr_project":[],"publication":[],"video":[],"msr-tool":[],"msr_publication_type":"article","related_content":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-item\/1187161","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-item"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/msr-research-item"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-item\/1187161\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1188129,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-item\/1187161\/revisions\/1188129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1187161"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"msr-research-highlight","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-research-highlight?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-research-area","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/research-area?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-publication-type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-publication-type?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-publisher","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-publisher?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-publication-cta","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-publication-cta?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-focus-area","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-focus-area?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-locale","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-locale?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-post-option","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-post-option?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-field-of-study","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-field-of-study?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-conference","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-conference?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-journal","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-journal?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-impact-theme","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-impact-theme?post=1187161"},{"taxonomy":"msr-pillar","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cm-edgetun.pages.dev\/en-us\/research\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/msr-pillar?post=1187161"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}